TD Economics: 2026 Spring Economic Update
Smaller Deficit This Year, But Windfall Doesn’t Last
Government books look better than expected to end 2025-2026, with the deficit expected to be $11.4 billion smaller than expected. However, much of the windfall will be spent over the budget horizon.
The update committed to $37.5 billion in new spending over six years, but much of it was accounted for by previously announced measures, including the enhanced GST rebate, the gas tax holiday and the electric vehicle rebate. New spending measures include $6 billion to expand skilled trades and the announcement of a new sovereign wealth fund.
Overall, the slightly better near-term deficit leads to a slightly lower trajectory for the federal debt burden. However, debt servicing costs still rise through the budget horizon.
Zooming out, measures in this update are fairly limited, as befits an “update”. The economic impacts are also likely to be limited, with the deficit trajectory beyond 2025-26 little changed. A deeper assessment of the new Canada Strong Fund awaits clarity on many unanswered questions.
Source: economics.td.com/federal-fiscal-update
Do your summer plans include heat safety?
(NC) Extreme heat events, or heat waves, pose serious health risks. If you aren’t prepared, your risk of heat-related illness goes up. These illnesses can affect you quickly and lead to long-term health problems and even death.
Here are some ways you can prepare for the heat before it arrives:
Know your risks
Hot temperatures can be dangerous, especially if you have:
- breathing difficulties
- heart problems
- hypertension
- kidney problems
- a mental illness
- Parkinson’s disease
If you are taking medication or have a health condition, ask your doctor or pharmacist if it increases your health risk in the heat and follow their recommendations.
Be heat ready
Make it a habit to tune in to local weather forecasts and alerts so you know when to take extra care.
Find ways to keep cool before the hot weather starts. If you have an air conditioner, make sure it works properly before the hot weather starts. Otherwise, find an air-conditioned spot close by, where you can cool off during hot days. This will help you cope with the heat better.
Have a summer wardrobe ready. This includes loose-fitting, light-coloured clothing made of breathable fabric. Shade yourself by wearing a wide-brimmed, breathable hat or using an umbrella. When you buy sunglasses, make sure they provide protection against both UVA and UVB rays.
Have check-in plans in place. Arrange for regular visits from family members, neighbours or friends during very hot days in case you need help. Visitors can help identify signs of heat illness that could be missed over the phone.
Make an emergency plan for your household. Make a household emergency plan that considers ways to prepare for extreme heat. Some elements to include in your plan:
- Keep your gas tank filled or car charged in case you need to get somewhere cool quickly.
- Locations with cooled indoor spaces near your home like a shopping mall, grocery store or public library.
Having a plan in place before an extreme heat event can help keep your family protected. Learn more at canada.ca/heat.
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